Predictive Logistic Model of Regional Lymph Node Metastasis Risk in Patients with Cutaneous Melanoma
https://doi.org/10.37174/2587-7593-2026-9-2-59-63
Abstract
Relevance: Cutaneous melanoma is characterized by high metastatic potential, and regional lymph node involvement is a key prognostic factor.
Purpose: To develop and evaluate a logistic regression model for predicting regional lymph node metastases.
Materials and methods: A single-center retrospective study included 121 patients with morphologically verified lymph node status. Clinical, ultrasound, elastography, scintigraphy, and pathological data were analyzed.
Results: The model demonstrated high discrimination (ROC AUC ≈ 0.95). At p = 0.272 sensitivity was ~0.85 and specificity ~0.96. A four-level risk stratification system was developed.
Conclusion: The model can be used for risk stratification and decision-making regarding invasive nodal staging.
About the Authors
E. V. Tikhonova
N.N. Blokhin National Medical Research Center of Oncology, Ministry of Health of Russia
Russian Federation
Competing Interests:
Russian Federation
Elena V. Tikhonova
24 Kashirskoe Shosse, Moscow, 115522
+7(901)900-55-15
Competing Interests:
Conflict of interests. Not declared
A. M. Sergeeva
National Research University “MEI”
Russian Federation
Competing Interests:
Russian Federation
Anna M. Sergeeva
14 Build. 1 Krasnokazarmennaya Str., Moscow, 111250
Competing Interests:
Conflict of interests. Not declared
S. N. Berdnikov
N.N. Blokhin National Medical Research Center of Oncology, Ministry of Health of Russia
Russian Federation
Competing Interests:
Russian Federation
Sergey N. Berdnikov
24 Kashirskoe Shosse, Moscow, 115522
Competing Interests:
Conflict of interests. Not declared
References
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4. Tikhonova EV, Berdnikov SN, Sergeeva AM, et al. Comparison of the diagnostic performance of the full logistic model and sentinel lymph node biopsy in patients with cutaneous melanoma. Effective pharmacotherapy. 2026;22(8):30-33. (In Russ.).
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Review
For citations:
Tikhonova E.V., Sergeeva A.M., Berdnikov S.N. Predictive Logistic Model of Regional Lymph Node Metastasis Risk in Patients with Cutaneous Melanoma. Journal of oncology: diagnostic radiology and radiotherapy. 2026;9(2):59-63. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.37174/2587-7593-2026-9-2-59-63
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